Temubual Najib Yg "bercelaru" Tentang Kenaikan Harga Minyak
Oleh Amirulreza - Laman M@RHAEN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assalamualaikum w.b.t.
Sudah saksikan wawancara Najib dalam program Isu Semasa Khas Bersama YAB di Angkasapuri? Jika tidak berpeluang sila lihat Wawancara Timbalan Perdana Menteri Mengenai Isu Kenaikan Minyak dan cuba amati apa yang dijawab oleh Najib tentang isu kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia sekarang ini.
Bagi saya sememangnya Najib menerangkan bahawa kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia perlu memandangkan kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Namun seperti biasa Najib tidak menerangkan situasi keseluruhan tentang kenapa iklim minyak dunia "sakit" mutakhir ini.
Sekarang saya cuba rumuskan apa yang disuarakan oleh Najib dalam wawancara tersebut.
Kenaikan perlu kerana kadar harga minyak dunia cecah US Dollar 62 setong atau se-barrel.
Malaysia adalah Net Exporter minyak yang kecil. Pengeluaran minyak Malaysia adalah berpurata 650,000 barrel per day. (Namun dari apa yang saya tahu dari sumber sebenar Petronas, pengeluaran Malaysia adalah 680,000 barrel per day)
Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer. Jadi pelaburan perlu difokuskan pada pembangunan untuk cari telaga minyak baru untuk generasi akan datang.
Pandangan untuk Isu (1).
Untuk isu (1), seperti yang saya nyatakan dalam artikel "Kisah Sebenar di Sebalik Kenaikan Harga Minyak di Malaysia (Terbaru) ", fokus spekulator minyak dunia mutakhir ini adalah berpusat kepada Isu perkayaan Uranium Iran dan isu penculikan dan pengeboman di telaga minyak Nigeria. Isu pengeboman berani mati oleh pengganas di Kingdom's Abqaiq Refining Center Arab Saudi telah dilaporkan oleh sumber AMEinfo.com bahawa ia tidak menggugat kadar pengeluaran minyak di Saudi, jadi para spekulator lebih fokuskan kepada 2 isu yang lebih berisiko iaitu di Nigeria dan Iran.
Menurut sumber Bloomberg, Duta U.S ke International Atomic Energy Agency semalam menyatakan bahawa rancangan Iran untuk perkayaan Uraniumpada skala besar adalah sesuatu yang "tidak aman".
Malah Broker ADM Investor Services International di London menyatakan,
"The Iran-Russia basic agreement is weak, particularly because Iran said they would refuse to give up the right to enrich uranium on their own soil".
Malah serangan pemberontak pada 18 Februari lalu terhadap terminal pengeksportan minyak terbesar Nigeria, Forcados platform, memaksa Royal Dutch Shell Plc. memberhentikan pengepaman minyak sebanyak 455,000 barrel sehari. Pihak militan juga mengamcam untuk meluaskan penentangan dan seterusnya memotong 30 peratus output dari pengeluar terbesar minyak di Afrika itu.
Menurut analisa Citigroup Inc.,iaitu James Neale dan Jonathan Wright semalam, ancaman kepada industri minyak di Nigeria itu akan berterusan sepanjang 2006 kerana pilihanraya president akan diadakan tahun depan.
Satu lagi kebimbangan "wajib" yang tidak berkesudahan kini adalah tentang perkembangan politik Iraq. Faktor ini merupakan suatu yang rutin kepada kenaikan minyak dunia sejak kejatuhan rejim saddam lagi. Malah inilah sebabnya harga minyak dunia berada pada tahap US Dollar 60 sebarrel. Faktor ini jugalah menyebabkan harga minyak di Malaysia telah dinaikkan sebelum ini.
Sesungguhnya pengeluaran minyak Iraq terus menurun selagi hura-hara berterusan di sana. Output Iraq jatuh kepada 1.53 juta barrel sehari bulan lalu disebabkan tindakan sabotaj dan kurangnya pelaburan, kejatuhan itu adalah yang paling rendah semenjak Ogos 2003, 5 bulan sebelum penaklukan Amerika Syarikat dahulu.
Jika kita amati pandangan Najib Tun Razak, kerajaan mengambil risiko dengan kenaikan 30 sen itu, namun jika harga minyak terus meningkat, kerajaan tidak akan menaikkan lagi harga minyak di Malaysia. Tetapi harga yang diramal oleh juak-juak Najib sekiranya harga minyak dunia mencecah US Dollar 70 atau 80 se-barrel ! Apa kata isu di Nigeria serta Iran beransur pulih dan keadaan harga minyak dunia terus seimbang pada angka US Dollar 60 sehingga 65 se-barrel pada tahun ini dan seterusnya kembali normal pada US Dollar 60 se-barrel selepas isu Nigeria berakhir tahun depan, adakah kemungkinan Malaysia menarik balik kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia ?
Berdasarkan trend kenaikan harga minyak Malaysia, tidak pernah sekalipun harga minyak di Malaysia mengalami penurunan, walaupun harga minyak dunia pernah juga turun !
Pandangan Untuk Isu (2).
Walaupun Malaysia adalah Net Exporter yang kecil, mutu minyak Malaysia adalah yang paling rendah kandungan sulfur. Ini menunjukkan minyak Malaysia agak bermutu dan dijual agak mahal. Jadi tidak hairanlah
"Petronas mencatatkan keuntungan RM35.5 billion pada tahun kewangan 2004 sehingga 2005.Dimana keuntungan itu tidak termasuk RM3.12 billion yang dibayar kepada kerajaan dalam bentuk cukai,duti dan pembayaran royalti."
"Dijangkakan bagi tahun berakhir 2005 sehingga 2006, pendapatan akan mencecah RM50 billion"
Selain itu, Petronas juga mempunyai carigali minyak di beberapa buah negara seperti Sudan, Arab Saudi dan sebagainya. Berikut adalah Operasi Antarabangsa Petronas;
1. ALGERIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Block 401C
Partners: Amerada Hess (Operator)
Status: Exploration
2. ANGOLA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Deepwater Block 24
Partners: Ocean Energy (Operator) and Sonangol P & P
Status: Exploration
3. ARGENTINA
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in two major high pressure gas transmission pipelines in Argentina, Transportadora de Gas Del Norte S.A. (TGN) and Transportadora de Gas Del Mercosur S.A. (TGM).
4. AUSTRALIA
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in the Australian portion of the Papua New Guinea-Queensland Gas Pipeline.
Partner: Australian Gas Light Company
Status: Expected to deliver gas to customers by mid-2009
ii. Interest in Australian Pipeline Trust which owns over 7,500 km of pipelines and a 25% share of the natural gas market in Australia.
iii. Provide gas transmission marketing services for two pipeline systems owned by Australian Pipeline Trust -- a 2,026 km Moomba - Sydney Pipeline and a 255 km Central West Pipeline -- through its wholly-owned subsidiary East Australian Pipeline Marketing.
iv. Interest in Gasnet, a gas transmission pipeline company in Victoria.
5. BENIN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block 4
Partner: Kerr McGee (Operator)
Status: Exploration
6. CAMBODIA
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Retailing and marketing of petroleum products.
ii. Operates a 7,000 metric ton of petroleum products storage since 1998.
7. CAMEROON
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block PH 77
Partner: Philips (Operator)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Chad-Cameroon Pipeline
i. Constructed the 900 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon.
Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, Cameroon Government and Chad Government
Status: Operational
8. CHAD
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Doba Three-Field Development (Oil fields: Miandoum, Bolobo and Komé)
Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco
Status: Production of oil started in mid-2003.
ii. Interest in Permit H (Doba, Doseo and Lake Chad Basins)
Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Chad-Cameroon Pipeline
i. Constructed the 170 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon.
Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and Chad Government
Status: Operational
9. CHINA
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution in Jiangsu Province.
Partner: China Offshore Oil Donghai Co. Ltd.
Status: Operational
ii. Marketing of petroleum products in Hong Kong, Macau and Southern China.
10. EGYPT
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in North East Mediterranean Deepwater (Nemed) Oil and Gas Block
Partners: Shell Egypt Deepwater (Operator)
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) Concession
Partner: BG International (Operator) and Egyptian General Petroleum Co. (EGPC)
Status: Exploration, development and production
iii. Interest in Western Desert Block
Partner: Tharwa (Operator), Shell Egypt
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in El Burg Block
Partner: British Gas (Operator)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Interest in Egyptian LNG Project, involved in the development and operation of LNG liquefaction plant and the related infrastructure.
Partners: BG Group, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co., EGPC and Gaz De France
Status: Completion of Train 1 in May 2005
11. EQUATORIAL GUINEA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block N, offshore Corisco Bay
Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation, Vanco Equatorial Guinea and GEPetrol.
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in Block P, Rio Muni Basin
Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation (Operator), GEPetrol, Atlas Petroleum (International) Ltd. and DNO ASA
Status: Exploration
12. ETHIOPIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block G, Gambela Basin
Status: Exploration
13. GABON
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Moabi and Nguma Permits
Partners: Amerada Hess Production Gabon (Operator) and Mitsubishi Petroleum Development Corp.
Status: Exploration
14. INDIA
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture to import LPG at Haldia for marketing in East India. Also provides LPG terminalling service.
Partner: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Status: Operational
15. INDONESIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production:
i. Interest in Ketapang Block, offshore East Java
Partners: ConocoPhilips (Operator)
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in Tanjung Aru Block, offshore Kalimantan
Partner: Amerada Hess (Operator) and PERTAMINA and Unocal
Status: Exploration
iii. Interest in Karapan Block, offshore East Java, through a joint venture company, PETRONAS Carigali RIMS Joint Operating Company Ltd.
Partner: RIMS Energy Karapan Ltd. Under joint operatorship
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in Jabung Block, onshore South Sumatra
Partners: PetroChina (Operator) and PERTAMINA
Status: Exploration, development and production
v. Interest in Tanjung Jabung
Partner: Wirabuana Group
Status: Exploration
vi. Interest in Natuna Sea Block A
Partners: Kufpec, Premier (Operator) and Amerada Hess
Status: Production
vii. Interest in North East Madura Offshore Block IV
Status : Exploration
viii. Interest in Madura Offshore
Partners: Santos (Operator)
Status : Exploration and development
ix. Interest in Muriah Block
Status : Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in P.T. Transportasi Gas Indonesia (TGI) through a joint venture company, Transasia Pipeline Company Pvt. Ltd.
Partners: CONOCO Indonesia Holdings Ltd, SPC Indo-Pipeline Co. Ltd. and Talisman Transgasindo Ltd.
Status: TGI currently owns and operates two gas pipelines in Sumatra:
i. Grissik-Duri pipeline, which runs from the Corridor Block gas plant to the Duri Oil field.
ii. Grissik-Batam-Singapore pipeline, transporting gas from three gas plants -- Corridor Block, South Jambi B and Jabung Block -- to Singapore.
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Marketing of petroleum products
16. IRAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Sirri A and E offshore oil fields.
Partners: Total. NIOC (operator)
Status: Production of oil started in 1998
ii. Interest in South Pars Gas Development project, phases 2 & 3.
Partners: Total (Operator), Gazprom
Status: Production of gas started in 2002
iii. Interest in Munir Block.
Partners: Edison International (Operator) and Lundin (Munir) Ltd.
Status: Exploration
17 . MAURITANIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block 6 located northwest of Nouakchott.
Partners: Woodside Mauritania Pty Ltd (Operator), Hardman Resources Ltd, and ROC Oil.
Status: Exploration
18. MOROCCO
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Tiznit Block
Partners: Energy Africa (Operator), Taurus and ONAREP
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in offshore Rabat-Sale Haut Mer Block
Partner: ONAREP
Status: Exploration
19. MOZAMBIQUE
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in offshore Zambezi Delta Block
Partner: Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos de Moçambique (ENH)
Status: Exploration
20. MYANMAR
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Yetagun Gas Project (Blocks M-12, M-13, M-14 and Taninthayi Pipeline Co LLC which operates a cross-border pipeline transporting gas from the Yetagun Gas field to Thailand).
Partners: Nippon Oil Exploration (Myanmar) Ltd, Petroleum Authority of Thailand E&P International and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise
Status: Production started in 2000.
ii. Interest in Blocks M-15, M-16, M-17 and M-18, offshore southern Myanmar.
Status: Exploration
21. NIGER
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
Interest in Agadem Block
Partner: ExxonMobil
Status: Exploration
22. PAKISTAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Mubarak Block, Sindh Province. Completed the construction of Rehmat Gas Plant which is now supplying processed gas to the pipeline and the refinery.
Partners: ENI and Government Holdings of Pakistan.
Status: Exploration and production
ii. Interest in onshore Mehar Block, Sindh/Balochistan provinces.
Partners: Orient Petroleum Inc (OPI), Zaver Petroleum and Government Holdings of Pakistan
Status: Exploration
23. PHILIPPINES
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Mindoro Block
Partners: Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) terminalling, bottling and distribution in Mindanao.
Partners: Alcantara Consolidated Resources Inc and Masalingan Inc
Status: Operational
24. SOUTH AFRICA
DOWNSTREAM:
Refining & Product Retailing:
i. Interest in Engen Ltd.
Status: Engen owns and operates a refinery in Durban and has more than 1,250 service stations in Southern Africa.
25. SUDAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Blocks 1, 2 and 4 through a joint venture company, Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Ltd (GNPOC).
Partners: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), ONGC Videsh and Sudapet (Sudan's National Oil Company). Under joint operatorship.
Status: Production started in June 1999.
ii. Interest in Block 5A
Partners: OMV and Sudapet
Status: Exploration and development
iii. Interest in Block 5B
Partners: IPC Sudan Ltd, OMV and Sudapet
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in Blocks 3 & 7 through a joint venture company, PETRODAR Operating Company Ltd.
Partners: CNPC, Sudapet, Gulf Petroleum Corp. (GPSC) and Al-Thani. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration and development
v. Interest in Blocks 8
Partners: Sudapet and High Tech Group. Joint operatorship by PETRONAS Carigali Overseas and Sudapet.
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products.
ii. Owns and operates bulk terminals, depots, aviation depots and bunkering facility.
26. SWITZERLAND
Engineering
Interest in Sauber PETRONAS Engineering AG
Partner: Sauber Motorsport AG
Status: Undertakes technical research and development activities in the field of automotive engineering technology. The company develops the engine for the Sauber PETRONAS Formula One Racing Team.
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Marketing of petroleum products
27. THAILAND
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products.
28. TURKMENISTAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Production sharing contractor for Block 1, South Caspian Sea.
Status: Further exploration and development. Three discovered oil/gas fields in Apsheran Sill. Discovered oil and gas reserves in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea through the East Livanov-2A well.
29. UNITED KINGDOM
DOWNSTREAM:
LNG Terminal
i. Interest in Dragon LNG
Partners: BG Group and Petroplus
Status: Development of LNG terminal and related facilities in Milford Haven, Wales. The terminal is scheduled to start operation by 2007.
30. VIETNAM
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Operates offshore Blocks 01 and 02
Partner: PetroVietnam Exploration & Production Company (PVEP)
Status: Developing Ruby, Emerald and Topaz oil fields. The Ruby field started production in late 1998.
ii. Interest in Blocks 10 and 11.1 through a joint venture company, Con Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PetroVietnam Investment and Development Company (PIDC) and PERTAMINA. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
iii. Interest in Block 46-Cai Nuoc
Partners: Talisman (Operator) and PIDC
Status: Exploration, development and production
iv. Interest in Block 46/02 through a joint venture company, Truong Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PVEP and Talisman Vietnam Ltd. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
v. Interest in Blocks 01/97 and 02/97 through a joint venture company, Lam Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PVEP. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
vi. Interest in Blocks 102 & 106
Partners: ATI Petroleum Inc (ATIP), PIDC and SPC Vietnam (Blocks 102/106) Co. Ltd. (SPV)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution - Thang Long LPG JV Co.
Partner: PetroVietnam Gas Corp
Status: Operational
Petrochemicals
i. Interest in a polyvinyl chloride plant in Vung Tau under a joint venture company, Phu My Plastics and Chemicals Co. Ltd. (PMPC).
Partners: PetroVietnam Gas Corp and Tramatsuco
Status: Operational
31. YEMEN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Block 52
Partners: Ansan Wikfs and Yemen Corp
Status: Exploration
Hampir 31 negara yang dijadikan tempat oleh Petronas untuk mencari hasil petroleum dan gas ! Hasil itu akan di'import' ke Malaysia. Namun apa yang diimport itu adalah apa yang dimiliki Malaysia !
Pandangan Untuk Isu (3).
Najib menyatakan dalam temubual semalam bahawa
"Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer"
Seperti yang saya nyatakan tadi kita import apa yang telah kita korek hasil petroleum dan gas dari 31 buah negara yang telah saya nyatakan tadi.
Ini ditambah lagi, Malaysia bakal mengeluarkan biodiesel secara rasmi pada tahun depan. Jadi apa salahnya memfokuskan kepada teknologi biodiesel jika benarlah ia akan dihasilkan oleh Malaysia. Malah kereta proton juga perlu difokuskan kepada enjin yang mesra biodiesel ataupun Malaysia tidak yakin dengan pasaran biodiesel di dunia ?
"Kamon Najib, tak boleh fikir secara alternatif ke..?"
SILA LAWATI: http://amirulreza.blogdrive.com
Sekian.
Kiriman: amirulreza (amirulreza.2ya.com)
email: avicenna@kelatedaily.net
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assalamualaikum w.b.t.
Sudah saksikan wawancara Najib dalam program Isu Semasa Khas Bersama YAB di Angkasapuri? Jika tidak berpeluang sila lihat Wawancara Timbalan Perdana Menteri Mengenai Isu Kenaikan Minyak dan cuba amati apa yang dijawab oleh Najib tentang isu kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia sekarang ini.
Bagi saya sememangnya Najib menerangkan bahawa kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia perlu memandangkan kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Namun seperti biasa Najib tidak menerangkan situasi keseluruhan tentang kenapa iklim minyak dunia "sakit" mutakhir ini.
Sekarang saya cuba rumuskan apa yang disuarakan oleh Najib dalam wawancara tersebut.
Kenaikan perlu kerana kadar harga minyak dunia cecah US Dollar 62 setong atau se-barrel.
Malaysia adalah Net Exporter minyak yang kecil. Pengeluaran minyak Malaysia adalah berpurata 650,000 barrel per day. (Namun dari apa yang saya tahu dari sumber sebenar Petronas, pengeluaran Malaysia adalah 680,000 barrel per day)
Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer. Jadi pelaburan perlu difokuskan pada pembangunan untuk cari telaga minyak baru untuk generasi akan datang.
Pandangan untuk Isu (1).
Untuk isu (1), seperti yang saya nyatakan dalam artikel "Kisah Sebenar di Sebalik Kenaikan Harga Minyak di Malaysia (Terbaru) ", fokus spekulator minyak dunia mutakhir ini adalah berpusat kepada Isu perkayaan Uranium Iran dan isu penculikan dan pengeboman di telaga minyak Nigeria. Isu pengeboman berani mati oleh pengganas di Kingdom's Abqaiq Refining Center Arab Saudi telah dilaporkan oleh sumber AMEinfo.com bahawa ia tidak menggugat kadar pengeluaran minyak di Saudi, jadi para spekulator lebih fokuskan kepada 2 isu yang lebih berisiko iaitu di Nigeria dan Iran.
Menurut sumber Bloomberg, Duta U.S ke International Atomic Energy Agency semalam menyatakan bahawa rancangan Iran untuk perkayaan Uraniumpada skala besar adalah sesuatu yang "tidak aman".
Malah Broker ADM Investor Services International di London menyatakan,
"The Iran-Russia basic agreement is weak, particularly because Iran said they would refuse to give up the right to enrich uranium on their own soil".
Malah serangan pemberontak pada 18 Februari lalu terhadap terminal pengeksportan minyak terbesar Nigeria, Forcados platform, memaksa Royal Dutch Shell Plc. memberhentikan pengepaman minyak sebanyak 455,000 barrel sehari. Pihak militan juga mengamcam untuk meluaskan penentangan dan seterusnya memotong 30 peratus output dari pengeluar terbesar minyak di Afrika itu.
Menurut analisa Citigroup Inc.,iaitu James Neale dan Jonathan Wright semalam, ancaman kepada industri minyak di Nigeria itu akan berterusan sepanjang 2006 kerana pilihanraya president akan diadakan tahun depan.
Satu lagi kebimbangan "wajib" yang tidak berkesudahan kini adalah tentang perkembangan politik Iraq. Faktor ini merupakan suatu yang rutin kepada kenaikan minyak dunia sejak kejatuhan rejim saddam lagi. Malah inilah sebabnya harga minyak dunia berada pada tahap US Dollar 60 sebarrel. Faktor ini jugalah menyebabkan harga minyak di Malaysia telah dinaikkan sebelum ini.
Sesungguhnya pengeluaran minyak Iraq terus menurun selagi hura-hara berterusan di sana. Output Iraq jatuh kepada 1.53 juta barrel sehari bulan lalu disebabkan tindakan sabotaj dan kurangnya pelaburan, kejatuhan itu adalah yang paling rendah semenjak Ogos 2003, 5 bulan sebelum penaklukan Amerika Syarikat dahulu.
Jika kita amati pandangan Najib Tun Razak, kerajaan mengambil risiko dengan kenaikan 30 sen itu, namun jika harga minyak terus meningkat, kerajaan tidak akan menaikkan lagi harga minyak di Malaysia. Tetapi harga yang diramal oleh juak-juak Najib sekiranya harga minyak dunia mencecah US Dollar 70 atau 80 se-barrel ! Apa kata isu di Nigeria serta Iran beransur pulih dan keadaan harga minyak dunia terus seimbang pada angka US Dollar 60 sehingga 65 se-barrel pada tahun ini dan seterusnya kembali normal pada US Dollar 60 se-barrel selepas isu Nigeria berakhir tahun depan, adakah kemungkinan Malaysia menarik balik kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia ?
Berdasarkan trend kenaikan harga minyak Malaysia, tidak pernah sekalipun harga minyak di Malaysia mengalami penurunan, walaupun harga minyak dunia pernah juga turun !
Pandangan Untuk Isu (2).
Walaupun Malaysia adalah Net Exporter yang kecil, mutu minyak Malaysia adalah yang paling rendah kandungan sulfur. Ini menunjukkan minyak Malaysia agak bermutu dan dijual agak mahal. Jadi tidak hairanlah
"Petronas mencatatkan keuntungan RM35.5 billion pada tahun kewangan 2004 sehingga 2005.Dimana keuntungan itu tidak termasuk RM3.12 billion yang dibayar kepada kerajaan dalam bentuk cukai,duti dan pembayaran royalti."
"Dijangkakan bagi tahun berakhir 2005 sehingga 2006, pendapatan akan mencecah RM50 billion"
Selain itu, Petronas juga mempunyai carigali minyak di beberapa buah negara seperti Sudan, Arab Saudi dan sebagainya. Berikut adalah Operasi Antarabangsa Petronas;
1. ALGERIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Block 401C
Partners: Amerada Hess (Operator)
Status: Exploration
2. ANGOLA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Deepwater Block 24
Partners: Ocean Energy (Operator) and Sonangol P & P
Status: Exploration
3. ARGENTINA
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in two major high pressure gas transmission pipelines in Argentina, Transportadora de Gas Del Norte S.A. (TGN) and Transportadora de Gas Del Mercosur S.A. (TGM).
4. AUSTRALIA
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in the Australian portion of the Papua New Guinea-Queensland Gas Pipeline.
Partner: Australian Gas Light Company
Status: Expected to deliver gas to customers by mid-2009
ii. Interest in Australian Pipeline Trust which owns over 7,500 km of pipelines and a 25% share of the natural gas market in Australia.
iii. Provide gas transmission marketing services for two pipeline systems owned by Australian Pipeline Trust -- a 2,026 km Moomba - Sydney Pipeline and a 255 km Central West Pipeline -- through its wholly-owned subsidiary East Australian Pipeline Marketing.
iv. Interest in Gasnet, a gas transmission pipeline company in Victoria.
5. BENIN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block 4
Partner: Kerr McGee (Operator)
Status: Exploration
6. CAMBODIA
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Retailing and marketing of petroleum products.
ii. Operates a 7,000 metric ton of petroleum products storage since 1998.
7. CAMEROON
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block PH 77
Partner: Philips (Operator)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Chad-Cameroon Pipeline
i. Constructed the 900 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon.
Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, Cameroon Government and Chad Government
Status: Operational
8. CHAD
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Doba Three-Field Development (Oil fields: Miandoum, Bolobo and Komé)
Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco
Status: Production of oil started in mid-2003.
ii. Interest in Permit H (Doba, Doseo and Lake Chad Basins)
Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Chad-Cameroon Pipeline
i. Constructed the 170 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon.
Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and Chad Government
Status: Operational
9. CHINA
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution in Jiangsu Province.
Partner: China Offshore Oil Donghai Co. Ltd.
Status: Operational
ii. Marketing of petroleum products in Hong Kong, Macau and Southern China.
10. EGYPT
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in North East Mediterranean Deepwater (Nemed) Oil and Gas Block
Partners: Shell Egypt Deepwater (Operator)
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) Concession
Partner: BG International (Operator) and Egyptian General Petroleum Co. (EGPC)
Status: Exploration, development and production
iii. Interest in Western Desert Block
Partner: Tharwa (Operator), Shell Egypt
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in El Burg Block
Partner: British Gas (Operator)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Interest in Egyptian LNG Project, involved in the development and operation of LNG liquefaction plant and the related infrastructure.
Partners: BG Group, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co., EGPC and Gaz De France
Status: Completion of Train 1 in May 2005
11. EQUATORIAL GUINEA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block N, offshore Corisco Bay
Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation, Vanco Equatorial Guinea and GEPetrol.
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in Block P, Rio Muni Basin
Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation (Operator), GEPetrol, Atlas Petroleum (International) Ltd. and DNO ASA
Status: Exploration
12. ETHIOPIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block G, Gambela Basin
Status: Exploration
13. GABON
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Moabi and Nguma Permits
Partners: Amerada Hess Production Gabon (Operator) and Mitsubishi Petroleum Development Corp.
Status: Exploration
14. INDIA
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture to import LPG at Haldia for marketing in East India. Also provides LPG terminalling service.
Partner: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Status: Operational
15. INDONESIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production:
i. Interest in Ketapang Block, offshore East Java
Partners: ConocoPhilips (Operator)
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in Tanjung Aru Block, offshore Kalimantan
Partner: Amerada Hess (Operator) and PERTAMINA and Unocal
Status: Exploration
iii. Interest in Karapan Block, offshore East Java, through a joint venture company, PETRONAS Carigali RIMS Joint Operating Company Ltd.
Partner: RIMS Energy Karapan Ltd. Under joint operatorship
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in Jabung Block, onshore South Sumatra
Partners: PetroChina (Operator) and PERTAMINA
Status: Exploration, development and production
v. Interest in Tanjung Jabung
Partner: Wirabuana Group
Status: Exploration
vi. Interest in Natuna Sea Block A
Partners: Kufpec, Premier (Operator) and Amerada Hess
Status: Production
vii. Interest in North East Madura Offshore Block IV
Status : Exploration
viii. Interest in Madura Offshore
Partners: Santos (Operator)
Status : Exploration and development
ix. Interest in Muriah Block
Status : Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Gas Pipeline Network
i. Interest in P.T. Transportasi Gas Indonesia (TGI) through a joint venture company, Transasia Pipeline Company Pvt. Ltd.
Partners: CONOCO Indonesia Holdings Ltd, SPC Indo-Pipeline Co. Ltd. and Talisman Transgasindo Ltd.
Status: TGI currently owns and operates two gas pipelines in Sumatra:
i. Grissik-Duri pipeline, which runs from the Corridor Block gas plant to the Duri Oil field.
ii. Grissik-Batam-Singapore pipeline, transporting gas from three gas plants -- Corridor Block, South Jambi B and Jabung Block -- to Singapore.
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Marketing of petroleum products
16. IRAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Sirri A and E offshore oil fields.
Partners: Total. NIOC (operator)
Status: Production of oil started in 1998
ii. Interest in South Pars Gas Development project, phases 2 & 3.
Partners: Total (Operator), Gazprom
Status: Production of gas started in 2002
iii. Interest in Munir Block.
Partners: Edison International (Operator) and Lundin (Munir) Ltd.
Status: Exploration
17 . MAURITANIA
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Block 6 located northwest of Nouakchott.
Partners: Woodside Mauritania Pty Ltd (Operator), Hardman Resources Ltd, and ROC Oil.
Status: Exploration
18. MOROCCO
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Tiznit Block
Partners: Energy Africa (Operator), Taurus and ONAREP
Status: Exploration
ii. Interest in offshore Rabat-Sale Haut Mer Block
Partner: ONAREP
Status: Exploration
19. MOZAMBIQUE
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in offshore Zambezi Delta Block
Partner: Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos de Moçambique (ENH)
Status: Exploration
20. MYANMAR
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Yetagun Gas Project (Blocks M-12, M-13, M-14 and Taninthayi Pipeline Co LLC which operates a cross-border pipeline transporting gas from the Yetagun Gas field to Thailand).
Partners: Nippon Oil Exploration (Myanmar) Ltd, Petroleum Authority of Thailand E&P International and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise
Status: Production started in 2000.
ii. Interest in Blocks M-15, M-16, M-17 and M-18, offshore southern Myanmar.
Status: Exploration
21. NIGER
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
Interest in Agadem Block
Partner: ExxonMobil
Status: Exploration
22. PAKISTAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Mubarak Block, Sindh Province. Completed the construction of Rehmat Gas Plant which is now supplying processed gas to the pipeline and the refinery.
Partners: ENI and Government Holdings of Pakistan.
Status: Exploration and production
ii. Interest in onshore Mehar Block, Sindh/Balochistan provinces.
Partners: Orient Petroleum Inc (OPI), Zaver Petroleum and Government Holdings of Pakistan
Status: Exploration
23. PHILIPPINES
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Mindoro Block
Partners: Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) terminalling, bottling and distribution in Mindanao.
Partners: Alcantara Consolidated Resources Inc and Masalingan Inc
Status: Operational
24. SOUTH AFRICA
DOWNSTREAM:
Refining & Product Retailing:
i. Interest in Engen Ltd.
Status: Engen owns and operates a refinery in Durban and has more than 1,250 service stations in Southern Africa.
25. SUDAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in Blocks 1, 2 and 4 through a joint venture company, Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Ltd (GNPOC).
Partners: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), ONGC Videsh and Sudapet (Sudan's National Oil Company). Under joint operatorship.
Status: Production started in June 1999.
ii. Interest in Block 5A
Partners: OMV and Sudapet
Status: Exploration and development
iii. Interest in Block 5B
Partners: IPC Sudan Ltd, OMV and Sudapet
Status: Exploration
iv. Interest in Blocks 3 & 7 through a joint venture company, PETRODAR Operating Company Ltd.
Partners: CNPC, Sudapet, Gulf Petroleum Corp. (GPSC) and Al-Thani. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration and development
v. Interest in Blocks 8
Partners: Sudapet and High Tech Group. Joint operatorship by PETRONAS Carigali Overseas and Sudapet.
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products.
ii. Owns and operates bulk terminals, depots, aviation depots and bunkering facility.
26. SWITZERLAND
Engineering
Interest in Sauber PETRONAS Engineering AG
Partner: Sauber Motorsport AG
Status: Undertakes technical research and development activities in the field of automotive engineering technology. The company develops the engine for the Sauber PETRONAS Formula One Racing Team.
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Marketing of petroleum products
27. THAILAND
DOWNSTREAM:
Product Retailing & Marketing
i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products.
28. TURKMENISTAN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Production sharing contractor for Block 1, South Caspian Sea.
Status: Further exploration and development. Three discovered oil/gas fields in Apsheran Sill. Discovered oil and gas reserves in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea through the East Livanov-2A well.
29. UNITED KINGDOM
DOWNSTREAM:
LNG Terminal
i. Interest in Dragon LNG
Partners: BG Group and Petroplus
Status: Development of LNG terminal and related facilities in Milford Haven, Wales. The terminal is scheduled to start operation by 2007.
30. VIETNAM
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Operates offshore Blocks 01 and 02
Partner: PetroVietnam Exploration & Production Company (PVEP)
Status: Developing Ruby, Emerald and Topaz oil fields. The Ruby field started production in late 1998.
ii. Interest in Blocks 10 and 11.1 through a joint venture company, Con Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PetroVietnam Investment and Development Company (PIDC) and PERTAMINA. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
iii. Interest in Block 46-Cai Nuoc
Partners: Talisman (Operator) and PIDC
Status: Exploration, development and production
iv. Interest in Block 46/02 through a joint venture company, Truong Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PVEP and Talisman Vietnam Ltd. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
v. Interest in Blocks 01/97 and 02/97 through a joint venture company, Lam Son Joint Operating Company.
Partners: PVEP. Under joint operatorship.
Status: Exploration
vi. Interest in Blocks 102 & 106
Partners: ATI Petroleum Inc (ATIP), PIDC and SPC Vietnam (Blocks 102/106) Co. Ltd. (SPV)
Status: Exploration
DOWNSTREAM:
i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution - Thang Long LPG JV Co.
Partner: PetroVietnam Gas Corp
Status: Operational
Petrochemicals
i. Interest in a polyvinyl chloride plant in Vung Tau under a joint venture company, Phu My Plastics and Chemicals Co. Ltd. (PMPC).
Partners: PetroVietnam Gas Corp and Tramatsuco
Status: Operational
31. YEMEN
UPSTREAM:
Exploration & Production
i. Interest in onshore Block 52
Partners: Ansan Wikfs and Yemen Corp
Status: Exploration
Hampir 31 negara yang dijadikan tempat oleh Petronas untuk mencari hasil petroleum dan gas ! Hasil itu akan di'import' ke Malaysia. Namun apa yang diimport itu adalah apa yang dimiliki Malaysia !
Pandangan Untuk Isu (3).
Najib menyatakan dalam temubual semalam bahawa
"Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer"
Seperti yang saya nyatakan tadi kita import apa yang telah kita korek hasil petroleum dan gas dari 31 buah negara yang telah saya nyatakan tadi.
Ini ditambah lagi, Malaysia bakal mengeluarkan biodiesel secara rasmi pada tahun depan. Jadi apa salahnya memfokuskan kepada teknologi biodiesel jika benarlah ia akan dihasilkan oleh Malaysia. Malah kereta proton juga perlu difokuskan kepada enjin yang mesra biodiesel ataupun Malaysia tidak yakin dengan pasaran biodiesel di dunia ?
"Kamon Najib, tak boleh fikir secara alternatif ke..?"
SILA LAWATI: http://amirulreza.blogdrive.com
Sekian.
Kiriman: amirulreza (amirulreza.2ya.com)
email: avicenna@kelatedaily.net
posted by Panji at
1:36 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home